The Great Ownership Transfer
McKinsey's name for the wave of small businesses changing hands in the next decade. These are the figures behind Venny, with their sources.
The wave
small businesses face an ownership change by 2035, up from about 4.5 million the decade before. [1, p. 7]
of them are viable candidates for sale or employee ownership, worth up to $5 trillion. [1, p. 3]
small-business owners is 65 or older. More than half are over 55, up from about 30% in 2002. [1, p. 7]
- 2.3M to 3M businesses owned by baby boomers are expected to change hands in the next decade as their owners retire. [4]
- 32M people work at those boomer-owned businesses, which bring in nearly $6.5 trillion a year. [4]
- 12M jobs could stay in place with effective transitions, along with about $250 billion a year in local spending. [1, p. 2]
Why most don't get handed off
of the 510,000 small-business exits in 2022 were closures. Another 5% were sold, and 3% passed to new owners such as family. [1, p. 7]
- 6 to 13% of closures could have been avoided, about 6% because the owner fell ill or died. [1, p. 7]
“If you couldn’t work in your business tomorrow, would it still take care of you, and everyone who depends on it?”
Linda Jensen, founder and CEO, Heart Financial Group [4]
Three things get in the way.
1Owners start late
- Fewer than 1 in 3 owners have a documented exit plan. [2]
- Half of retiring owners have a formal succession plan. [4]
- 27% of owners 55 and older are unsure of their long-term plan or intend to close. [3]
- Nearly 50% of owners exit involuntarily, through death, disability, divorce, a disagreement with a partner or economic duress. [4]
“Most owners don’t really understand their exit options. Their wealth is tied up in the business, but they haven’t thought about what comes next or how it’s supposed to support the rest of their lives.”
A leader of an organization that helps owners prepare for a transition [1, p. 7]
2Most are too small for the usual buyers
- Nearly 80% of expected exits are businesses worth under $2 million. [1, p. 13]
- $500K to $2M Firms this size are “too large to be informal, yet too small to attract private equity or corporate buyers.” Many stay invisible to the market. [1, p. 14]
- 20 to 23% of rural owners are 65 or older, and rural areas have the highest exit rates, 33 to 59 per 10,000 residents. [1, p. 10]
3Most sales happen quietly
- Very few small businesses use a formal broker or listing platform. The rest rely on informal networks. [1, p. 25]
“A lot of exits never show up in a formal process. Owners talk to their accountant, a trusted adviser, or someone they already know. If that doesn’t work, the business may never really go to market.”
An ownership transition investor [1, p. 24]
What owners say matters most when they sell
name a fair price. [5]
name what happens to their employees. [5]
say cultural fit with the buyer is important or very important. [5]
“Within a decade, buying a business could be as common, visible, and supported as starting one.”
McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility [1, p. 34]
Why Venny exists
Most help is built for selling. Most advisors are set up to sell a business to an outside buyer. Venny shows owners every option: handing it to family, selling to managers or employees, selling part of it, or selling all of it to someone outside.
Owners start too late. Venny lets them start early, a few questions at a time, with no commitment and no clock.
Owners and successors can't find each other. Venny introduces people privately, and only when both sides fit.
The fear of losing what you built. Venny looks at the business and the person from the start, not just the price.
Sources
- McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility (Ken Yearwood and Shelley Stewart III, with Nathan Marks and Nick Noel), “The Great Ownership Transfer: A new era of business stewardship,” February 2026. Jobs and local spending, p. 2; viable firms and value, p. 3; exits, closures, owner ages and avoidable closures, p. 7; rural areas, p. 10; firms under $2 million, pp. 13 to 14; buyer demand, p. 19; brokers and listings, p. 25; quotes, pp. 7, 24 and 34.
- Exit Planning Institute, 2023 National State of Owner Readiness Report, as cited in McKinsey, p. 27.
- Gallup, 2025 Pathways to Wealth Survey, employer firms with owners 55 and older, as cited in McKinsey, p. 7.
- Alison Coleman, “The ‘Silver Tsunami’ Is Reshaping Small Business: Why Exit Planning Can’t Wait,” Forbes, January 14, 2026. Boomer-owned businesses, from a Project Equity study; employees and revenue, as stated in the article; succession plans, from the 2025 U.S. Bank Small Business Survey; involuntary exits, from Exit Planning Institute research; quote from Linda Jensen.
- BNY Wealth, “Mastering the Sale: 2025 Insights for Private Business Owners,” 2025, survey of 127 US private business owners.
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